The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE as a Predictor of Returns Gundlach's Forecast for 2021 - The Year of Regime Change 132. Re-estimated Economy | 2021 | Economic Data | World Economics from. . Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio just hit a number so unusual that investors ... Crime Index. From this we will estimate that at the Shiller PE's current level, the future market return will be around -2.8% a year. After a decade of very poor returns in emerging markets compared to the S&P500, relative valuations now favor emerging stocks to the same degree as in 2000. Find The World's Cheapest Markets With The CAPE Ratio Red represents more women, blue more men than the world average of 0.81 males/females. Right now, the world's cheapest emerging markets on a CAPE basis are Russia, with a CAPE of 6.4, Turkey (at 9.4) and the Czech Republic (9.9). That's the amount of gains you would have missed had you followed the market timing strategy I'm going to describe in the following article that utilizes the CAPE ratio. The earnings number for the Shiller P/E, based on that 10-year "real" average, is just over $117 a share. (Yes) How long does it take to work off a CAPE ratio bubble? GDP to Debt Ratio By Country - Forex Education Cape Verde: 1.03: 1.01: 1.00: 0.95: Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500. Idea #1) Add a Dividend Metric When you add another metric to the equation besides pure market capitalization, it change which countries dominate the index. Instead of using annual earnings, CAPE ratio uses the average (inflation-adjusted) earnings of the last 10 yearsto smoothen out any regular cyclical variations. Crime Index Index By Country 2022 United States China United Kingdom Russia Germany France Japan Italy Canada 0 20 40 60. Index page Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE ratio) at CBONDS.